Identifying Surprising Performances with Prediction Intervals

Identifying Surprising Performances with Prediction Intervals

Every player has days when everything seems to work and other days when nothing seems to go right. Saying when a player has truly over (or under) performed is tricky in tennis because there is always an opponent on the other side of the net that is also influencing the outcome of points. In this post, I look at a basic strategy to try to isolate the ability of the server and receiver, and discuss how this might be used to identify surprising performances on serve.

Most Surprising at Wimbledon 2017

Most Surprising at Wimbledon 2017

Which players exceeded expectations the most at the 2017 Wimbledon Championships? Which, on the other hand, had the most shocking exits?