Roland Garros Men's Watchability Ratings

The draws are out for the 2022 edition of Roland Garros. With Rafael Nadal’s drought in clay Masters titles this season, it has been one of the more surprising lead ups to the clay slam in over a decade. With the skyrocketing success of Carlos Alcaraz, signs that Novak Djokovic is returning to form, and Nadal’s fitness up in the air; the stage is set for a thrilling fight for the French Open men’s title. Which matches are more likely to deliver the most thrills in the first rounds?

Watchability ratings combine the quality and competitiveness of match to give an overall ‘watchability’ score. The technical details can be found here. The figure below shows the breakdown of the expected quality and competitiveness of the first round and probable second round matches at Roland Garros (excluding matches with still to be determined qualifiers , and the overall Watchabilty that these translate to.

The tables that follow order each round’s matches by their Watchability, helping fans to prioritize their watchlist for the coming days of the Paris slam.

Figure 1. Distribution of Watchability Ratings for first round and probable second round matches.

First Round

player opponent quality competitiveness watchability
Denis Shapovalov Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune 2178.9 94.1 2051
Hugo Dellien Dominic Thiem 2068.3 97.9 2025
Thanasi Kokkinakis Albert Ramos-Vinolas 2035.1 99.4 2022
Benjamin Bonzi Frances Tiafoe 2041.1 99.1 2022
Cristian Garin Tommy Paul 2073.2 97.1 2013
Francisco Cerundolo Daniel Evans 2013.8 99.2 1997
Lloyd Harris Richard Gasquet 1969.2 100.0 1969
Filip Krajinovic Reilly Opelka 2098.7 91.1 1911
Kamil Majchrzak Brandon Nakashima 1978.8 96.2 1905
Steve Johnson Jiri Vesely 1968.5 93.5 1841
Borna Coric Carlos Taberner 1989.5 92.3 1837
Alexander Bublik Arthur Rinderknech 2001.6 91.6 1833
Aljaz Bedene Christopher O'Connell 1965.9 91.6 1800
Federico Delbonis Adrian Mannarino 1898.5 93.6 1778
David Goffin Jiri Lehecka 2083.7 80.9 1687
Pablo Cuevas Jenson Brooksby 2001.7 83.4 1670
Federico Coria Alex Molcan 1998.3 83.0 1658
Tallon Griekspoor Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2103.1 78.1 1644
Daniel Altmaier Jaume Antoni Munar Clar 2065.6 76.7 1584
Dusan Lajovic Sebastian Baez 2098.7 75.1 1576
James Duckworth Mikael Ymer 1847.7 83.9 1550
Laslo Djere Richard Berankis 2025.8 76.4 1548
Sebastian Korda John Millman 2047.8 75.0 1535
Oscar Otte Roberto Carballes Baena 1978.8 75.9 1503
Emil Ruusuvuori Ugo Humbert 1922.0 77.6 1492
Stan Wawrinka Corentin Moutet 1997.1 74.7 1492
Stefanos Tsitsipas Lorenzo Musetti 2299.5 64.2 1476
Quentin Halys John Isner 2035.7 72.5 1475
Alexei Popyrin Fabio Fognini 1999.5 73.5 1470
Nikoloz Basilashvili Maxime Cressy 1947.7 74.7 1456
Henri Laaksonen Pedro Martinez Portero 1954.2 74.1 1448
Alex De Minaur Hugo Gaston 2029.3 70.0 1421
Benoit Paire Ilya Ivashka 1940.1 72.0 1397
Taro Daniel Gregoire Barrere 1945.1 71.6 1393
Miomir Kecmanovic Tomas Martin Etcheverry 2071.4 66.9 1385
Grigor Dimitrov Marcos Giron 2076.0 65.2 1354
Pablo Andujar Marco Cecchinato 1882.6 70.7 1330
Lorenzo Sonego Peter Gojowczyk 1899.1 68.8 1307
Facundo Bagnis Daniil Medvedev 2133.8 59.2 1264
Marin Cilic Attila Balazs 2001.5 62.9 1259
Soon-Woo Kwon Andrey Rublev 2100.4 59.6 1251
Casper Ruud Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 2096.8 59.4 1245
Cameron Norrie Manuel Guinard 2008.1 62.0 1245
Yoshihito Nishioka Novak Djokovic 2256.1 55.1 1244
Jordan Thompson Rafael Nadal 2192.8 51.5 1128
Pablo Carreno-Busta Gilles Simon 1956.6 54.0 1056

Most Probable Second Round

player opponent quality competitiveness watchability
Jaume Antoni Munar Clar Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 2177.9 93.0 2026
Botic Van De Zandschulp Fabio Fognini 2123.2 93.9 1994
Ilya Ivashka Tommy Paul 2066.8 95.2 1968
Hugo Dellien Karen Khachanov 2110.5 90.1 1902
John Isner Taro Daniel 2100.1 87.8 1845
Christopher O'Connell Jenson Brooksby 2028.6 90.6 1838
Marton Fucsovics Marin Cilic 2118.1 86.2 1825
Frances Tiafoe David Goffin 2098.9 84.8 1780
Nikoloz Basilashvili Mackenzie Mcdonald 1995.1 86.2 1720
Denis Shapovalov Pedro Martinez Portero 2126.6 80.2 1705
Alejandro Tabilo Reilly Opelka 2060.1 80.9 1666
Francisco Cerundolo Mikael Ymer 1961.2 84.6 1658
Alexander Zverev Sebastian Baez 2304.5 71.8 1655
Miomir Kecmanovic Arthur Rinderknech 2120.6 76.3 1618
Laslo Djere Daniil Medvedev 2223.5 72.2 1606
Sebastian Korda Richard Gasquet 2056.3 76.8 1580
Kamil Majchrzak Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2088.2 74.8 1562
Grigor Dimitrov Borna Coric 2120.7 73.1 1551
Felix Auger Aliassime Aslan Karatsev 2121.7 72.7 1543
Pablo Andujar Hubert Hurkacz 2103.1 73.3 1541
Oscar Otte Jannik Sinner 2196.3 68.9 1514
Joao Sousa Lorenzo Sonego 1942.9 77.7 1510
Pablo Carreno-Busta Jiri Vesely 2112.4 69.9 1476
Casper Ruud Emil Ruusuvuori 2149.7 66.0 1418
Cameron Norrie Denis Kudla 2038.6 66.2 1350
Stan Wawrinka Rafael Nadal 2326.4 56.4 1313
Novak Djokovic Alex Molcan 2284.7 57.0 1302
Michael Mmoh Taylor Harry Fritz 2042.6 62.4 1275
Andrey Rublev Federico Delbonis 2108.1 60.4 1272
Albert Ramos-Vinolas Carlos Alcaraz 2284.7 55.5 1267
Lucas Pouille Stefanos Tsitsipas 2169.1 53.6 1162