Forecasting the Women's 2018 Australian Open

Forecasting the Women's 2018 Australian Open

A strong pre-AO run and a bit of luck put Elina Svitolina at the top of a tight race for the Australian Open women’s title. Who are the other women with the best chances for the first Major win of 2018?

Forecasting the Men's 2018 Australian Open

Forecasting the Men's 2018 Australian Open

Roger Federer drew the toughest quarter of the 2018 Men’s Australian Open draw but is still the favourite to defend his title. Who else is a contender for the men’s title?

Best ATP Servers and Returners of 2017

Best ATP Servers and Returners of 2017

Who was the best server in 2017? Who was the best receiver? Which players were the most improved servers and receivers? This post reviews the standout performances of male players in 2017 using serve/return Elo ratings.

Sizing Up Federer's Seasons

Sizing Up Federer's Seasons

The “resurgence” of Roger Federer has been one of the biggest storylines of the 2017 season. After the end of Federer’s season at the ATP Tour Finals, how does it rank among his past seasons? and what is the best metric for judging season accomplishments?

Serve and Return Elo Ratings

Serve and Return Elo Ratings

The Elo rating system is one of the most popular tools for rating player and team performance. In this post, I show how we can take the Elo system beyond match wins and use it to rate players on the two most fundamental skills in the sport: serving and returning.

The Many Sides of Excitement

The Many Sides of Excitement

Having a metric for match excitement would be a useful tool for separating humdrum matches from thrillers. In this post, I have a look at two indices for measuring match excitement and discuss what’s to like and dislike about each.