In her debut match after nearly 8 years out of professional play, Kim Clijsters impressed many by taking Garbine Muguruza to a second set tiebreak. Neither player was winning more than 60% of points on serve, which made me wonder how likely a tiebreak was in this case. In this post, I use a simple Monte Carlo model to examine the most likely set scores for a variety of server matchups.
By the time of the Australian Open quarterfinals, Dominic Thiem had already played 10 hours and 23 minutes putting him in the top 20% of match time played to get to the quarters among men competing in Grand Slams in the past decade. And he only got further in the tail of total competition load as the event progressed. In this post, I look at whether the intensity of Thiem’s journey likely made his prospects for the title even more difficult.
After a walkover from Kohlschreiber in the R64, Stefanos Tsitsipas advanced to the third round with one fewer match played this week than any of his competitors. As Tsitsipas takes the court today for a spot in the 4th round, we look at whether skipping a round of play could have an impact on his result at the first slam of the season.
The draw for the 2020 Australian Open is out! What are the chances among the Big 3 for the first Grand Slam of the year? And is anyone else a strong prospect this year?
Ash Barty will carry the expectations of a nation when the Australian Open gets underway in a few days. But the odds suggest the 2020 AO could be 5 times a charm in Major finals for Serena Williams.