In just one week, Rafael Nadal will begin his journey towards a 14th Roland Garros title. Since his first win in Paris in 2005, Nadal has dominated the surface and only injury has been a consistent foe. Will 2021 continue that pattern? This post looks at the trends in player clay ratings ahead of the French Open main draw and the story they tell about a growing threat to Nadal’s reign as the definitive ‘King of Clay’.
A constant conundrum for tennis fans is deciding which match to watch at any particular time. In this post, I look at how we can quanitfy the ‘must-seeness’ of a match based on it’s overall quality and competitiveness using player ratings.
After introducing Pressure Ratings for matches, this post looks at how a similar approach can be used to develop a Set Competitiveness rating for players. The Set Competitiveness measures the pressure of a player’s sets in a way that allows direct ranking against the pressure typically faced by other players.
Last week’s 252-point Paris Masters semifinal between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer got many wondering whether it was the best match in their 47 match long rivalry. In this post, I introduce a pressure rating for sets and matches that can help to tell us to rate their relative competitiveness.
On Monday, Novak Djokovic will regain the World No. 1 ranking, climbing from outside the top 20 at the start of the year. Djokovic’s comeback has been the major story this week. In this post, I look at his rise in terms of his match-by-match Elo rating and put it in context of his best season performances in 2011 and 2015.