Which Blockbuster Matches Might Be Ahead At The US Open?

The round of 32 is set for the US Open. Out of all the matches that could still happen, which will be the ones not to miss?

After a packed Friday schedule, the first two rounds of the US Open are complete. Now that we know the matches for the third round, we can look forward to see how the tournament is likely to play out and see which matches could be the most watchable in the days to come.

Simulating 10,000 possible outcomes from the current state of the draw using GIG Player Ratings, we can see not only how probable each matchup is in each round but also give a score for how exciting that matchup is likely to be. To measure ‘excitement’ I am going to use the must-see stat I introduced in a recent post.

Men’s

Nick Kyrgios could have ample opportunity to build on his star power in the next few rounds. Monfils advancing to the third round also sets up some possible fist-pumping clashes in the next few rounds, including a Kyrgios-Monfils quarterfinal.

Daniil Medvedev dropped a set in the second round. The next few rounds could be the real test of whether he can turn his best-of-3 dominance into a career-best slam performance. The odds have him with a good chance of getting to the final and setting up for a number of paths for him to break the 11-slam streak of the Big 3 and prove that at least some of the new blood on tour are real contenders.

Player Opponent Must-See Score How Likely? (%)
R32
Nick Kyrgios Andrey Rublev 802 100
Pablo Carreno-Busta David Goffin 790 100
Gael Monfils Denis Shapovalov 762 100
R16
Nick Kyrgios Matteo Berrettini 925 56
Roger Federer David Goffin 879 69
Diego Schwartzman Alexander Zverev 844 72
QF
Novak Djokovic Daniil Medvedev 1180 90
Nick Kyrgios Gael Monfils 923 25
Matteo Berrettini Gael Monfils 905 31
SF
Roger Federer Novak Djokovic 1397 67
Roger Federer Daniil Medvedev 1259 17
David Goffin Daniil Medvedev 931 1
F
Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 1537 55
Roger Federer Rafael Nadal 1302 32
Rafael Nadal Daniil Medvedev 1116 8

Women’s

American fans will be looking to Madison Keys and Sofia Kenin to put them on the edge of their seats in the next round. Whichever of the two survives that battle is likely to be in the spotlight from that point on, as they are each among the top must-see prospects in the second week.

A final-worthy billing could come in the quarterfinal if Serena Williams and Ash Barty were to meet there. And the prospects are good for Bianca Andreescu to get the final against Serena Williams that she was denied in Toronto. If Andreescu gets to the final, expect her to make it an unmissable match for any number of opponents she could face.

Player Opponent Must-See Score How Likely? (%)
R32
Sofia Kenin Madison Keys 886 100
Elina Svitolina Dayana Yastremska 762 100
Maria Sakkari Ashleigh Barty 712 100
R16
Madison Keys Elina Svitolina 865 33
Sofia Kenin Elina Svitolina 864 30
Karolina Pliskova Johanna Konta 837 82
QF
Serena Williams Ashleigh Barty 1106 63
Madison Keys Karolina Pliskova 891 21
Sofia Kenin Karolina Pliskova 871 17
SF
Karolina Pliskova Ashleigh Barty 996 18
Serena Williams Karolina Pliskova 981 21
Madison Keys Ashleigh Barty 875 6
F
Karolina Pliskova Bianca Andreescu 1020 9
Bianca Andreescu Ashleigh Barty 995 14
Serena Williams Bianca Andreescu 981 19
Stephanie Kovalchik avatar
About Stephanie Kovalchik
Blog Founder, Senior Data Scientist at the Game Insight Group at Tennis Australia, and researcher at the Institute for Health and Sport at Victoria University.
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